War Possibilities in Ukraine

In February 2014, when Maidan Movement finally succeeds, all control over Kiev passes into the hands of the pro-EU and US wing of the Ukrainian oligarchs and careerist politicians under their direction, relying on fanatically anti-Russian, ultra-nationalist mobs.

This disgusting slurry in Kiev, where neo-Nazi had heavily influenced, played against Russia with Western support, and in the civil war, Luhansk and Donetsk in the east of Ukraine fell into the hands of pro-Russian separatists. Crimea, on the other hand, was annexed by Russia like a piece of cake. At least half of the Ukrainian society, the east and south of the country, consider itself historically and culturally close to or "belong to Russia". Yet, after the mistakes of the anti-Russian fanatics in Kiev Putin was given very favorable opportunities to intervene. Apart from Crimea and Donbass, even Odessa and Kharkiv could fall into pro-Russian hands.

Current Situation

7 years have passed. While the vast majority of the Ukrainian people became poorer during this period, the nationalist charlatans in Kiev did not make any progress even in the Donbass, let alone Crimea. Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, which were declared unilaterally, prevented the Ukrainian army with paramilitary units supported by Russia. As a result, even though Kiev did not want it at all, it had to comply with the Minsk Agreement, and now they want to throw away this agreement.

Volodymyr Zelensky, who speaks like the new master of Kiev but is in fact a rather weak figure according to his predecessor Poroshenko, and the security apparatus around him think that the military and diplomatic balances have changed. 

1. Biden, who has re-increased the aggression of US imperialism against Russia (also China and Iran), and promotes Kiev: "NATO is behind you!" Not only Biden, but also the AKP/Erdogan is busy with escalating the tension in Kiev. Taking care of its old imperial past, Britain is also planning a joint military exercise with the Ukrainian Army this summer. (At this point, it should be said that "socialist" politicians such as Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez in the USA and "socialist" organizations such as DSA, who could not end up praising Biden and the Democratic Party, are part of the imperialist machine.)
2.  Although the Ukrainian army, which is constantly armed, is very weak compared to Russia, is making calculations of being able to tear those in Donbas. They are better equipped; more motivated, and have more powerful special forces than before.
3.  Similar to the situation in Karabakh, it is calculated that Russia will not be directly involved in Donbass, which is the territory of Ukraine in legal terms, and thus paramilitaries in Donbass will be crushed with a more overwhelming force (Bayraktar SİHAs that change the game).

Prospects

Putin is massing on the Ukrainian border and Crimea, mobilizing the Black Sea Navy. Putin's friend Belarus' army is also concentrated on the Ukrainian border. The message is clear: "You are surrounded! Ukrainian army cannot defend and the Russian shears will cut another piece of Ukraine!" The goal is to be a deterrent power. The "warnings" from the Kremlin front constantly send the message that Kiev will pay a heavy price. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Army and far-right militia forces have also massed on the Donbas' border. The first move is expected to come from Kiev, but Russia's deterrent moves obviously cause hesitation. This is evident from Kiev's pleading for urgent NATO membership. There are a lot of voices in Kiev that NATO will not risk war for Ukraine, and nowadays the recent optimism seems to have disappeared. On the other hand, if Kiev ventures a war, it is expected that the still low-intense conflicts will turn into a fundamental war in Donbas. So what will Russia do?

There are two possibilities:

1.  Russia will intervene in the Donbas War to cause a historical defeat for Ukraine.
2. Instead of officially participating in the war, Russia will once again try to stop the advance of the Ukrainian army by backing the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics.

The first scenario is a huge move. While Russia is bringing this move to the agenda as a threat to Kiev, the USA draws the NATO card to intimidate Russia; the warship in the Black Sea is defrauding warplanes in the skies of Ukraine. For Biden, how to manage this crisis has turned into a test because there is a possibility of defeat. Hundreds of millions of dollars transferred to the Ukrainian army and fascist militias, the weapons given, destabilized the Kremlin. At the same time, Putin's intimidation moves caused despair not only in Kiev but also in Washington.

If Russia chooses the second scenario, that is, does not directly participate in the war, this time, there is a possibility that the Donbass will be crushed by the Kiev forces. If Kiev can activate drone attacks at full capacity, Donbass will not have much chance, just like Armenia. Such a result will be a great blow to Putin, and after Donbass, it will come to Crimea, which Moscow gives vital importance to. Therefore, Russia cannot allow Donbass to be swallowed by Kiev. The justification of defending the lives and rights of 600 thousand Russian citizens (Putin's move to make citizens) living in Donbas can always provide Russia with the opportunity to intervene.

If Kiev cannot take the risk of Russia gaining an advantage, it must rely on diplomatic interim solutions from European powers (such as Germany) that did not participate in Kiev's warlordism, in order to save its dignity.

After all, the imperialist capitalist world system continues to produce wars and create enormous dangers for all humanity. Nationalism and ethnic slaughter, religious fanaticism, and sectarian wars continue to veil the interests of local and global rulers. In times of economic crisis, the risk of local conflicts turning into big wars increases.