On the German Elections: AfD Challenges the Establishment

by Emre Güntekin

Trotsky wrote the following about the elections held in Germany in 1931:

"The fascists are growing very rapidly. The Communists are also growing but much more slowly. The growth at the extreme poles shows that the ball cannot maintain itself at the top of the pyramid. The rapid growth of the fascists signifies the danger that the ball may roll down toward the right. Therein lies an enormous danger. (1)

For those examining the table below, two points will stand out regarding the elections that took place the other day.

The first is the rise in votes for Die Linke, which is considered an encouraging development from the left's perspective. The other is the electoral surge of the fascist AfD (Alternative for Germany). Since the 2021 elections, AfD’s vote share has doubled. However, when viewed within a broader historical context, the overall picture is far from promising. AfD continues to grow, fueled by both Germany’s ongoing economic crisis and the wider international conditions that bolster its strength.

In response to the election results, the German establishment will attempt to build a barrier against AfD’s rise by bringing together the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. However, the decline of these very parties—each responsible for Germany’s ongoing social and economic crisis—makes it difficult to look to the future with optimism. While the CDU/CSU recorded its second-worst election result in history, the SPD suffered its worst electoral outcome since the post-war period. Another coalition partner, the Greens, also experienced a decline in their voting share.

Now, there is widespread consensus that a potential CDU-SPD coalition will end in disaster—and since the opposite scenario seems highly unlikely, many believe it will pave the way for an AfD victory in 2029 or even in an earlier election.

The following comment from Der Spiegel sums up the situation:

"If this fails, everything is over. AfD will become even stronger in the next election and will most likely emerge as the largest party. The task before Chancellor Merz will be to restore confidence—not only in the political center but, more importantly, in the system itself, in the superiority of liberal democracy over authoritarian tendencies. No chancellor has faced such a challenge since reunification." (2)

However, we have seen many times—not only in Germany but across the world—that similar formulas have failed to work. Over the past four years, the disastrous presidency of so-called “Democrat” Biden has paved the way for Trump’s even stronger comeback. Similarly, in France, despite President Macron’s attempts at a so-called sensible centrist approach, figures like Le Pen and even more extreme Zemmour have continued to rise. This failure of centrist stability ultimately led to a government crisis, with the center-right Bernier government collapsing under far-right pressure just 51 days after its formation.

In Turkey, the opposition’s strategy of betting everything on the ballot box in last year’s presidential election also failed to stop Erdoğan’s regime. In short, it is clear that the antidote to the far right and authoritarianism is not a more palatable right-liberal alternative. While CDU and Merz’s so-called "victory" may create a temporary sense of stability, it is highly likely that this illusion will soon fade, making way for yet another period of political turbulence. The German ruling class may attempt to keep AfD away from power through coalition engineering, but as long as the conditions that fuel the far right remain unchanged, it will continue to exist as a serious political force.

Chancellor-in-waiting Merz will soon face major challenges, including a disintegrating EU, rising military expenditures driven by war policies and imperialist competition, and mass layoffs by industrial giants like Volkswagen, which is experiencing  a deep crisis. Meanwhile, the growing social and political pressure created by the far right will further complicate governance. And if there are no major surprises, Merz will have to tackle these issues alongside the SPD, the architect of Germany’s biggest rearmament spending in history and the declining living standards of the working class, as well as potentially the Greens, who have played a key role in shaping the controversial Ukraine and Palestine policies that have fueled public anger.

Youth is Turning to Radical Extremes!

The significant shift of young generations toward Die Linke and AfD demonstrates that youth have lost faith in traditional parties. The unconditional support for the Zionist occupation and right-leaning policies on immigration have pushed young voters away from the SPD and the Greens, leading many to see Die Linke as an alternative. Among the 18–24 age group, Die Linke became the most popular party with 24% of the vote, followed closely by AfD at 21%. Die Linke led among young women, while AfD was the top choice among young men.

For AfD, however, the most striking development is the broadening of its social base from lumpen petit bourgeois layers to the working class. Among low-income voters, AfD secured 39%, among workers, 38%, and among the unemployed, 34%. Taking advantage of the ineffectiveness of the radical left and the comfort of being in opposition, the far right has exploited the fundamental issues of the working class with ease. The SPD, Greens, and even Die Linke in some local governments have contributed to this shift by implementing austerity measures, which have fueled anger among voters and pushed them toward the right.

However, explaining this shift toward AfD purely as an accumulation of frustration would be insufficient. The fact is, the far right is experiencing a global resurgence. Today’s political landscape is shifting from neoliberal figures like Macron and Scholz to far-right leaders like Trump, Le Pen, and Meloni. Moreover, with Trump and Elon Musk gaining influence over U.S. imperialism, the far right has found highly favorable international conditions.

As the elections approached, one of AfD’s most vocal supporters was Elon Musk, who frequently posted on his X account messages such as: “Only the AfD can save Germany." "AfD is the only hope for Germany."

Is the Process Leading to Fascism?

While this question extends beyond the scope of this article, it is important to highlight certain key points. In Italy, we witnessed how Meloni, who openly embraced Mussolini’s legacy, eventually integrated into mainstream politics and was forced to soften some of her more extreme positions. For far-right parties, the radical rhetoric used in opposition is often difficult to maintain once in power. However, this does not mean that, under favorable conditions, they will hesitate to tighten their grip on the state apparatus, intensify repression against marginalized groups, and push polarization to its limits—just as Trump has attempted to do.

Germany is not currently facing an imminent fascist threat, but as Trotsky’s analogy in the earlier quote suggests, the ball is now balanced at the top of a pyramid. The question of which direction it will roll will be determined by the development of class struggle over the next four years.

From the left’s perspective, Die Linke’s success is significant, but the party’s local-level compromises with neoliberal policies and its hesitant stance on Palestine, aligning with Germany’s ruling class, demonstrate that it cannot serve as a true lever for class struggle. If the German working class and youth fail to mount a radical resistance against neoliberal policies and the ruling class’s imperialist war ambitions, the ball rolling to the right will become only a matter of time.

1. Trotksy, For a Workers’ United Front Against Fascism, https://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/germany/1931/311208.htm
2. Christophe Hickmann, Sisteme duyulan güven tehlikede, Der Spiegel, 23 Şubat 2025