A Potential AfD Government: Is Fascism Coming to Germany? – V.U. Arslan

I once argued, citing Meloni’s record in government despite her having openly praised Mussolini in the past, that fascism would not come to Germany under an AfD government. I have received some objections to this argument. Let me try to elaborate on the issue a little.

Without understanding the difference between far-right/right-wing populist “discourse” and fascism as a historical institution and class regime, we cannot produce a substantive analysis. What we need is an objective, historical-materialist analysis. If, instead, we focus on first impressions, fears, and formal similarities, our analysis will remain superficial. Fascist rule is a structural issue and cannot be understood independently of the interests of the bourgeoisie; nor can it be considered separately from the sharpest forms of class struggle and the deepest crises of bourgeois society. Fascist rule is not simply a matter of racist rhetoric or reactionary conservatism. Likewise, the narrowing of the spaces of bourgeois democracy, or every instance of repression by the bourgeois state, does not in itself constitute fascist rule.

Fascism is an extraordinary state apparatus to which finance capital and giant industrial cartels resort in moments of crisis when they can no longer manage the system through ordinary bourgeois democracy; it seeks to physically destroy all of the organized institutions of the working class, trade unions, and left-wing parties by mobilizing and inciting the petty bourgeoisie.

Today in Germany, capital is neither facing a crisis that would compel it to abandon the parliamentary system, nor is there any threat from a revolutionary workers’ movement that needs to be crushed. The interests of German capitalism lie not in expelling millions of migrants from the country and bringing production to a standstill, but in integrating migrants, keeping them under control, and maintaining them as a reserve industrial army that can be employed at low wages. The AfD may promise its base that it will “deport” migrants in order to win elections; but once it sits at the table of government or enters a governing coalition, it will be compelled to align itself with the structural needs of German capital.

The AfD’s real defining characteristic is its opposition, since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, to the severing of German industry from cheap Russian energy. Clearly, being “pro-Russian” has nothing to do with fascism, although its relationship to the contradictions within the German bourgeoisie is a matter that can be debated. The AfD appeals to a particular fraction of capital, especially those concentrated in energy-intensive export industries such as chemicals and machinery. But for export-oriented sectors, the issue is not simply energy costs. Access to the EU’s tariff-free internal market and the urgent need for migrant labour are vital to this section of capital. This is why, even for this fraction of capital, the AfD needs to be disciplined. Moreover, heavy-industry giants such as Rheinmetall are making tens of billions of euros in profits every year from arms sales thanks to the war in Ukraine. In other words, it is the German military-industrial complex, not being “Putinist”, that benefits from the continuation of the war in Ukraine and from arms spending being funded by the EU. In short, the AfD’s anti-EU, pro-Russian policies are far from being a viable option for the German bourgeoisie. Giants such as VW, Mercedes-Benz, and MAN are also directly entering the business of military production.

On the other hand, the AfD’s real social and economic base is in eastern Germany. Capital accumulation in eastern Germany remains far behind that of the West. Small and medium-sized factories and businesses are closing down in these regions, while companies are relocating their headquarters to the West. It is true that workers with little class consciousness are voting for the AfD, but the party’s actual base and leadership consist of the petty bourgeoisie, low-capital regional businesses, and members of the professional middle class, such as academics.

In summary, the AfD’s rhetoric and the racist wave it has generated are undoubtedly dangerous, creating a serious risk of social pressure and loss of rights for migrants. For this reason, German workers and revolutionaries must wage a determined struggle against the AfD. At the same time, they must make the necessary preparations to build a revolutionary alternative in anticipation of the normalization and loss of popular support that could result from a potential AfD government becoming a servant of the capitalist class. On the other hand, the AfD winning elections would not mean that “fascism has come to Germany”; rather, it would be a consequence of the deep crisis of bourgeois democracy, right-wing populist demagogy, and the bottlenecks facing the German economy.